The specialist data intelligence provider and leading aviation consultancy, IBA Group is predicting that Paris air show orders could be as low as half of 2018’s yield. Dr Stuart Hatcher, chief operating officer, MD-Aviation Services for IBA predicts that firm and MOU orders combined could be as low as 450.
“To set the scene, 2019 is not shaping up to be a good year on that order front which is not particularly surprising given the headwinds. Already, year to date, we have an unpredicted number of aircraft returning from failed operators as traffic growth slows, yields continue to soften from an historical low point, fuel costs increase across the medium terms and forecast is far from ideal. Aside from these economic points, 737 MAX grounding and the China-US trade problems add to the ongoing problems.”
The IBA Group predicts general activity for this year as follows:
- Airbus to potentially launch the A321XLR
- Boeing to not launch the NMA quiet jet
- Boeing to set out the re-entry of the 737 MAX in more detail
- Mitsubishi to launch the MRJ70 to optimise for scope clause compliance
- DNC to make some noise to purchase of the Q400 programme
- Sukhoi need to squash safety concerns and aftermarket support problems
Whether these predictions will be proven correct, we will know by the time the Paris air show closes at the end of the week. It will be an interesting week on the commercial aircraft front.