The UK aerospace industry is grappling with a slowdown in aircraft deliveries, even as order backlogs reach unprecedented highs.
According to the trade body ADS, commercial aircraft deliveries in the first nine months of 2024 have fallen by 7.5% compared to the same period in 2023.
Despite a strong third quarter with 295 aircraft deliveries – the highest for any Q3 since the pandemic – ADS notes that the year-to-date figures remain concerning.
New aircraft orders have also declined, with 982 orders placed in the first nine months of 2024, marking a 55% drop from the record-breaking orders in 2023. However, a surge in orders in September, the largest seen for that month in a decade, has partially offset the weaker performance earlier in the year.
This late surge has contributed to a record-breaking order backlog of 15,867 aircraft, an 8% increase compared to the same point last year. This backlog, representing approximately £241 billion worth of work for the UK over the next 12 years, underscores long-term confidence in the industry.
ADS attributes the slowdown in deliveries to supply chain disruptions, regulatory hurdles, and workforce challenges that have impacted production rates throughout the year.
“The challenges faced by manufacturers and the supply chain are evident in the record-high order backlog,” commented Aimie Stone, Chief Economist at ADS Group. “While this demonstrates confidence in the industry’s future, it also emphasises the need for increased government support to strengthen supply chains, foster innovation, and attract investment.”
The UK government recently identified advanced manufacturing, including aerospace, as a key growth sector in its Industrial Strategy. ADS emphasises the importance of translating this recognition into concrete policy actions to support the industry’s growth and address the challenges it faces.
According to ADS’s 2024 Aerospace Sector Outlook, the sector contributed £10.9 billion to the UK economy in 2023, a 16% increase compared to 2013. The sector also supports 104,000 direct jobs, with a median salary significantly higher than the UK average.
In light of the ongoing production challenges, ADS has revised its aircraft delivery forecast for 2024 down to 1,165 aircraft, a 7% reduction from its earlier forecast.
Despite the current slowdown, the UK aerospace sector remains a vital contributor to the UK economy, with a value add of £10.9 billion and supporting 104,000 direct jobs.
Photo: Airbus
Airbus A320s in production.
