Sustainable aviation fuel is the cornerstone of the aviation industry’s stated aim to achieve net zero carbon emissions by 2050. Paul E Eden learned the scale of the task ahead from SAF producer Neste and leading European low-fare carriers easyJet, Norwegian and Wizz Air.
This article, “No choice on carbon”, was originally published by Paul E Eden, in the August/September 2024 issue edition of LARA. To access similar articles from our magazines, apply for your complimentary subscription to LARA.
In 2022, the ICAO ( International Civil Aviation Organisation ) Assembly adopted a framework designed to help the aviation sector achieve net zero carbon emissions by 2050.
Sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) is the primary means of reducing carbon emissions in the time frame, but an April 2024 CAPA report places the magnitude of the ICAO ambition in sharp relief.
It notes that SAF accounted for just 0.2 per cent of the industry’s fuel consumption in 2023. By the same measure, if SAF production expands as forecast through 2024, then it might still only amount to 0.5 per cent this year.
There is a very long way to go. So can the aviation industry realistically achieve ICAO’s 2050 target?
Industry insights on SAF targets and production
“The truth is, there is no choice but to reach this goal,” says Yvonne Moynihan, Corporate and ESG Officer at Wizz Air Group.
“To do so requires a collaborative approach that includes all stakeholders across the aviation ecosystem. Industrial challenges are currently holding us back, but these can be overcome with the right effort, financing and investment.
“Governments have a key role to play in increasing SAF availability and supporting developments in carbon removal and hydrogen propulsion technologies.
“We can’t lose sight of the challenge, but I’m an optimist and believe that when there is a will there’s a way.”
Mainline carriers may seem to hog the limelight with their SAF announcements, but low-fare and regional airlines have a key role to play in SAF’s introduction.
Moynihan’s is therefore not a lone voice among the low-fare carriers (LFCs).
Esben Tuman of Norwegian emphasises the scale of the task confronting the industry. Image; Norwegian
Esben Tuman, Norwegian’s SVP External Communications, emphasises the scale of the task confronting the industry.
He says: “It is an ambitious goal, for sure. In addition,
the net zero target will rely on new technology and innovation in the coming years. The short answer is that it is possible, but it requires much effort, not only from the aviation industry but from the civil aviation authorities, governments, international organisations, aircraft manufacturers and many other players.”
Jane Ashton, Director of Sustainability at easyJet, says: “We believe aviation can meet its 2050 target. We have a net zero roadmap in place to help us decarbonise our operations and an SBTi-validated ‘interim’ carbon target of 35 per cent intensity reduction by 2035.
“We recorded our biggest carbon intensity reduction on record in 2023, through a combination of fleet renewal and operational efficiencies, including the use of state-of-the-art technology.
“For example, we estimate Descent Profile Optimisation software is helping us remove over 88,000 tonnes of CO2 from our operation every year.”
Investing in SAF production
The various models of SAF manufacture present interesting opportunities for investment, breaking the familiar construct whereby a handful of major oil companies monopolise the market.
Looking to secure their future SAF supply, both Wizz Air and Norwegian have made strategic investments in SAF production.
Tuman says: “Norwegian is in talks with several producers on offtake, and we are in a good place when it comes to securing our sustainable aviation fuel supply in the coming years. We have also invested in, and have an offtake agreement with, Norsk e-Fuel.
“When fully realised, this project at Mosjøen in Norway will contribute to our supply mainly from 2030 onwards. After 2030 we anticipate that the SAF market will suffer another supply shortage as demand rises exponentially with newer aircraft and stricter regulations.”
Norwegian is investing more than 50 million krone for a minority equity stake in Norsk e-Fuel and expects it to satisfy approximately 20 per cent of its SAF requirements.
Wizz Air’s Moynihan says: “The biggest hurdles to further sustainable aviation fuel usage are cost and availability, which is why we are pursuing offtake agreements and investing in SAF producers like Firefly Green Fuels and CleanJoule to help boost their production capabilities and therefore the availability of the fuel. This has put us in a strategic position to navigate availability and secure a wider supply in the future.”
Setting environmentally friendly targets for net zero
Valued at close to US$1 billion over 15 years, Wizz Air’s deal with Firefly includes a commercial offtake of 525,000 tonnes over the same period.
Both LFCs have set aggressive interim targets on the journey to net zero.
Wizz Air aims to reduce carbon intensity, or carbon emissions per passenger kilometre, by 25 per cent by 2030 – and Moynihan highlights a new commitment to operating 10 per cent of its flights on SAF by then.
Norwegian, meanwhile, is reaching for a 45 per cent reduction in emissions in the same time frame, even as both airlines struggle with aircraft challenges.
EasyJet has already contracted with Q8 Aviation for all the SAF required in its roadmap until 2027.
Unable to share information beyond 2027, Ashton tells LARA: “We are actively pursuing new opportunities for alternative fuel sources to diversify our pricing and supply risk.”
Fuel-efficient fleets and sustainable aviation fuel
If the very best way to reduce emissions is the impractical solution of not flying at all, then the next best is to burn as little fuel as possible. To this end, Norwegian is investing in Boeing’s 737 MAX, while Wizz Air is taking the Airbus A321neo.
Tuman says: “The plan is to completely phase in the MAX, but it is difficult to estimate a timeline for the full fleet renewal because of delivery delays. These impact several areas of operation, including carbon emission cuts, but the main action to reach our 2030 goals is still based on the use of SAF, and both the 737 MAX and 737-800 can fly with a blend of up to 50 per cent SAF.”
Moynihan says: “The introduction of A321neos – which now stand at 61 per cent of our aircraft – plays a key role in reducing emissions by 25 per cent by 2030.
“While we are on track to meet our glide path target of 42.6 grams CO2 per revenue passenger kilometre (RPK) by the end of the decade, we are aware of potential disruption from GTF engine serviceability issues and the gap this could leave us with in 2030 as we are forced to use older generation engines for a temporary period.
“To mitigate this, we’re already looking at load factors and aircraft technology and we’ve also increased our focus on SAF.”
Noting that easyJet’s incoming neo fleet reflects all the benefits to which Moynihan refers, Ashton confirms that the airline is committed to the LEAP engine and has therefore not been affected by GTF serviceability issues.
Neste’s plans for SAF expansion
As it grows to meet demand, Neste – the world’s leading SAF producer – is ramping up production capability to 1.5 million tonnes in 2024 – 15 times more than its 2022 capacity. By 2026, production will expand to 2.2 million tonnes per annum.
Neste Rotterdam refinery. Image; Neste
A Neste spokesperson tells LARA: “We’ve supplied SAF to mainline carriers including Delta, Air France-KLM and Emirates, as well as regional and low-cost airlines, Ryanair, easyJet and Wizz Air in Europe, and JetBlue in the US, all of them with ambitious climate targets.
“We supply SAF either directly to these airlines at selected international airports like San Francisco, Amsterdam and Singapore, or working together with partners in the fuel supply chain to supply other airports.
“SAF is chemically similar to fossil jet fuel, which means it can safely be used in existing aircraft and fuel infrastructure without investment, enabling broad distribution.”
Neste works directly with airlines and airports to get SAF into aircraft tanks. But with limited supply and high demand, the fuel is expensive regardless of the source – the COPA report suggested an average of 2.5 to 3.5 times more costly than fossil jet.
Mainline carriers and progressive LFCs are nonetheless snapping up supplies, and governmental initiatives are necessary for SAF to be adopted industry-wide.
The role of governments in driving sustainable aviation
Norwegian’s Tuman believes that ICAO’s carbon offsetting and reduction scheme for international aviation (CORSIA) has worked well and created a sense of urgency in the global aviation industry and participating countries.
But he says: “For now, it is limited only to mitigating emissions growth. Norwegian believes that the EU and governments can further help by keeping to the same schemes and taxation of emissions across the board.
“This will keep a level playing field no matter what countries you mainly fly out of.
“For SAF production, governments can help facilitate, invest in and regulate for more production, as we already see in several European countries.”
Moynihan likewise thinks that governments have a big part to play.
She says: “Under the EU’s ETS Directive [Emissions Trading Scheme], airlines will be entitled to claim free allowances if they use SAF in their operations.
“It means the cost differential between conventional jet fuel and SAF can be reimbursed up to 100 per cent, depending on the type of SAF used.
“It adds an incentive on top of SAF’s zero-emission factor, which means usage should hopefully accelerate across the industry.
“Other governments, especially in the UK, should introduce similar policies as the EU to create more incentives for SAF use and production.
“Support should also be given to SAF producers through government grants and increased investment, so any demand increases can be met.
“Traditionally, the fossil fuel sector has benefited from subsidies. Therefore, it’s time for the renewable energy sector to benefit too.”
Aviation leaders on the road to decarbonising aviation
Neste’s spokesperson takes a similar line to Moynihan, saying: “The big challenge is to ramp up SAF production as fast as we can, and governments can play a crucial role here.
Yvonne Moynihan shares her thoughts on the future of sustainable aviation. Image; Wizz Air Group
“Supporting policies, such as mandates or incentives, can create the demand certainty needed to attract investment into new production capacity as well as support airlines operating in a highly competitive environment.
“Mandates are a proven tool, as the adoption of biofuels in the road sector shows. We see positive developments, for example in the EU, where the ReFuelEU Aviation regulation mandates an increasing share of SAF starting with two per cent in 2025, or the US, which has supporting policies on both state and federal level, including the Low Carbon Fuel Standard in California.”
EasyJet’s Ashton acknowledges SAF as the key component in the airline’s roadmap in the short and medium term.
She says: “It will be pivotal to decarbonising aviation, with industry experts estimating it could reduce CO2 emissions by 80 per cent compared to traditional jet fuel.”
That still leaves a considerable chunk of emissions to address and all three LFCs featured here see a combination of new technology, more efficient operations in the air and on the ground, and other mitigations – against contrails, for example – as the answer.
Collaborative efforts to achieve net zero emissions target
Tackling some of this final 20 per cent is only possible through co-operation between often fierce competitors.
“We very often join forces with other airlines, even our closest rivals, to tackle issues together,” Ashton confirms.
“We recently worked closely with Ryanair and Wizz Air to push back against the proposal to exclude long-haul extra-EEA operators and flights from being included in the European Commission’s non-CO2 MRV [monitoring, reporting and verification], for example.
“EasyJet also currently co-chairs the Alliance for Zero Emission Aviation, formed of more than 160 members, of which many are in direct competition.
“Despite this, these organisations recently joined together to launch a unified paper outlining their shared vision for accelerating zero-carbon emission technology across Europe.”
Neste’s spokesperson adds some surprisingly candid thoughts.
“SAF currently represents less than one per cent of total global fuel consumption, so we have a long way to go, but the aviation industry has set a clear target and is committed to get to net zero carbon emissions by 2050.
“Aviation currently accounts for two to three per cent of total global carbon emissions, but with aviation expected to grow, its relative share of carbon emissions could increase to more than 20 per cent if no action is taken and other sectors decarbonise faster.”
Moynihan is positive in her response to this warning. She says: “It is clear that when it comes to the environment, airlines are in agreement and want to work together to achieve this common goal.”
If you enjoyed reading this article, you may be interested in these news stories:
Wizz Air’s Sustainability Initiatives: Interview with Chief ESG Officer (laranews.net)
Norwegian: Reflecting on Post-Pandemic Growth and Prospects for 2024 (laranews.net)
