Cirium, the aviation analytics company, has released its annual Fleet Forecast, which examines future trends in the global commercial aircraft market.
Single-aisle aircraft are expected to lead industry growth with a 3.9% annual growth rate, surpassing the 3.3% projected for twin-aisle aircraft. Regional aircraft are anticipated to see a more moderate growth rate of 0.8% per year.
The forecast predicts the delivery of 45,900 aircraft globally over the next 20 years, representing a 3.3 trillion USD investment in newer, more sustainable aircraft.
Despite anticipated supply chain challenges that are expected to reduce deliveries by 5% between 2024 and 2027, the industry is showing strong signs of recovery.
The current number of aircraft in service is up 5% compared to pre-pandemic levels, driven by a 13% increase in single-aisle aircraft. However, twin-aisle and regional jet numbers remain below pre-pandemic figures.
Airbus and Boeing are predicted to remain dominant, delivering an estimated 84% of new aircraft. COMAC is forecast to secure a 6% market share, while other manufacturers, including potential new entrants, account for approximately $180 billion in projected demand.
Asia is identified as a key growth region, expected to receive 45% of deliveries, with China alone accounting for 20%. India’s aviation market is also highlighted, with its passenger aircraft fleet projected to increase significantly from 720 to over 3,800 over the next two decades.
The forecast emphasises the ongoing impact of supply chain issues on aircraft manufacturers and the increasing demand for fuel-efficient aircraft to address sustainability concerns.
Photo: Airbus
Single aisle jets such as the A320neo and A321neo from Airbus are predicted to grow in numbers.
