Embraer has published its Market Outlook 2025, a 20-year commercial aircraft delivery forecast for sub-150-seaters.
China is expected to be the highest region in annual revenue passenger kilometres (RPK) regional growth rate at 5.7 per cent, followed by Latin America at 4.7 per cent, Africa and the Middle East both at 4.4 per cent, Asia Pacific at 4.1 per cent, Europe and CIS at 3.1 per cent, and North America as the lowest ranking at 2.4 per cent. Overall, the RPK share by the end of 2044 is estimated to be at 39 per cent Asia Pacific, and 37 per cent Europe and North America.
Conversely, when it comes to turboprops, Asia Pacific is anticipated to have 640 deliveries, totalling 36 per cent of the share by region. North America, Europe and CIS, Africa, and China are all in the middle with deliveries ranging in the 200s, followed by Latin America with 160 delivers, and the Middle East with 20.
However, North America is forecast to be at the top of the list for jet deliveries with 2,680 anticipated, which represents 30.7 per cent of the global share. This is followed by Europe and CIS, China, Asia Pacific, Latin America, Africa, and finally the Middle East with 350 deliveries, 4 per cent of the share.
Overall, the market value of all new aircraft is estimated to total USD 680 billion, with the global demand for new sub-150 seat aircraft to be approximately 8,720 jets and 1780 turboprops.
“Five years after the onset of the pandemic, many of the structural changes it triggered have proven to be quite long lasting,” said Arjan Meijer, Embraer President and CEO of Commercial Aviation. “In our first post-pandemic Market Outlook, we highlighted the transition from globalisation to a more polarised geopolitical outlook. Today, as countries and regions pursue greater strategic autonomy, the demand for regional access will continue to grow.
“We believe mixed fleets that combine small and large narrowbody aircraft are essential for that long-term growth. They provide the versatility needed to better match capacity with demand, expand networks, and support national and regional development goals.”
Embraer: Chalet 300
Photo: Embraer
